Inter Press Service: 29 July 1999
EAST TIMOR: AUSTRALIA LIKELY TO BE CORE OF UN PEACEKEEPERS
The United Nations, which has just delayed to August 30 the vote on East Timor's future, is expected to ask Australia to form the core of an armed UN peacekeeping force if the territory votes for independence from Indonesia.
By SONNY INBARAJ in Darwin
THE UNITED NATIONS, which has just delayed to August 30 the vote on East Timor's future, is
expected to ask Australia to form the core of an armed United Nations peacekeeping force if the territory votes for independence from Indonesia.
The UN has delayed the vote amid concerns that the security
situation in East Timor is not conducive to a free and fair
ballot. Originally, the plebiscite was scheduled for August 8, and
was later changed to August 21 or 22.
As the East Timor vote nears, Australia has put in place
contingency plans in line with on-the-ground assessments that the
most likely outcome is independence.
Likewise, leaked documents indicate that Indonesian-supported
paramilitaries could resort to a "scorched-earth" policy when
withdrawing to neighbouring West Timor.
''The majority of observers think that the vote would be in
favour of independence, though you cannot rule out the
intimidation and violent tactics carried out by the militia for
the past three months might have eroded the vote somewhat,'' said
Alan Dupont, director at the Australian National University's
Strategic and Defense Studies Centre in Canberra.
''But most people would still expect the result to be in favour
of independence,'' Dupont said.
''After the ballot and if the situation changes, Indonesia no
longer has jurisdiction over East Timor -- so that is the time the
UN force becomes critical because you'll need to maintain security
in a fairly lengthy transition period before a new East Timor
government comes into play,'' added Dupont.
Also of concern to Dupont is the hiatus of at least two months
before the new Indonesian People's Consultative Assembly votes to
formally cut ties with East Timor, if the independence vote gets
carried.
''Most of the focus now is on what happens after the Aug 30
ballot and there're two problem areas here,'' Dupont continued.
''There is a two-month period after the ballot before the
Indonesian parliament votes on the result, and the first question
to be asked is who's going to be responsible for security during
that difficult period, assuming that the vote goes in favour of
independence.''
According to a secret Indonesian government report leaked
recently, there is a strong likelihood that a sharp increase in
violence will accompany a result favouring independence.
The document dated July 3 and signed by H R Garnadi, special
assistant to General Feisal Tandjung, coordinating minister of
politics and security, calls on the Indonesian government to
confirm its commitment to the militias by ''empowering the pro-
integration forces''.
The document calls on Jakarta to prepare West Timor for a huge
influx of pro-integrationists and their supporters, and instructs
the paramilitaries to destroy vital facilities during their
withdrawal.
Earlier this week the Australian media, quoting diplomatic and
church sources, warned that 400 to 500 assault rifles, grenades
and mortars are being held in various Kodim (Indonesian military
district command) posts along the West Timor frontier, ready to be
handed out to the militias.
The Melbourne-based Age daily reported Thursday that
Australian Army First Brigade -- a 2800-strong, readily
deployable unit based in Darwin -- would contribute heavily to a
UN deployment in East Timor.
Quoting Australian defence sources, the Age also reported
while the United States, Britain, Portugal and other European
Union countries may have logistic input into any UN military
operation, it has been made clear to Australia these countries
would be unable -- or unwilling -- to contribute troops.
On Friday, Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer will be
in East Timor -- the first visit ever by an Australian cabinet
minister.
Canberra hopes the visit will improve bilateral ties with
Indonesia, free of the stigma of East Timor, after a permanent
political solution is found through the Aug 30 vote.
Downer will talk to UN representatives involved in preparing
for the ballot and meet community leaders who have called for an
end to political violence.
Activists want Downer to be more pro-active with regard to the
troubled territory.
''We call on Downer, visiting East Timor this weekend, to
ensure that Australia offers to the UN troops that will go in
before the poll,'' urged Bob Wesley-Smith of Australians for a
Free East Timor.
Wesley-Smith said it will be too late to go in if Indonesia-
sponsored militia violence breaks out in a massive way before the
arrival of the troops. ''Strategically it would pose a big
headache with the huge loss of innocent Timorese lives,'' he said.
Hours before the UN announced a delay, Nobel laureate and East
Timorese leader Jose Ramos Horta said in Manila: ''The conditions
simply do not exist for a truly genuine, democratic ballot to take
place.''
''It would be a total fraud, a fraud against the people of East
Timor and the international community,'' he said.
The Dili-based Yayasan Hak (Foundation for Legal and Human
Rights) noted in a report this week that while security in the
capital had improved in recent months, ''in remote areas terror
and intimidation still persist''.
''Violence committed by the Indonesian military, police, local
government officials and militia has forced tens of thousands of
people to leave their villages,'' said the Hak report. ''In
several areas, the local population who were terrorised and
intimidated, fled to the mountains or forest areas.''
On Tuesday, UN secretary general Kofi Annan himself said
''intimidation by armed militia groups remains particularly
prevalent in the western districts of East Timor''. (END/IPS/ap-ip-
hd/si/js/99)