PACIFIC
POLITICAL QUAKES SHAKE FRENCH PACIFIC: THE END OF AN ERA?

What has happened during less than three weeks in New Caledonia and French Polynesia during May has been described as a series of "political quakes" that have rocked these two French Pacific dependencies.

By PATRICK DECLOITRE in Suva

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The South Pacific is often referred to as very versatile in terms of earthquakes. This seems to be true also in politics.

What has happened in less than three weeks in New Caledonia and French Polynesia last month has been described as a series of "political quakes" that have rocked these two French Pacific dependencies.

In both cases, anti-independence leaders who had ruled almost unopposed for the past quarter of a century have suffered major blows as a result of elections.

New Caledonia
The first tremor rocked New Caledonia with the May 9 provincial elections to renew the three assemblies in the North, South and the Loyalty Islands.

Winds of change had been blowing for some time in New Caledonia's political spectrum, and for the first time a significant number of opposition figures (and incidentally dissidents from the ruling party) had formed a multiracial alliance known as Avenir Ensemble (Future Together).

One of their motives was to put an end to the 25-year-reign of New Caledonia's anti-independence strongman, Jacques Lafleur, founder and undisputed leader of the RPCR (Rally for New Caledonia Within the French Republic).

RPCR has controlled New Caledonia's key political institutions - the affluent Southern province, the territorial Congress (Parliament) and the local government, established in 1999.

In fact, opposition figures from the new Future Together alliance mostly came from RPCR, which they had left, saying they were disappointed with the way the autonomy Nouméa Accord was implemented, or rather not implemented.

But no one had predicted the people's verdict would have been that radical.

On the evening of May 9, RPCR's stronghold, the Southern Province, chaired by Lafleur himself, fell to the Future Together coalition.

Immediately, Future Together officials talked of a "political earthquake".

The new party won 19 of the 40 seats and, for the first time in years, RPCR became a minority party with only 16 seats - something unheard of.

This was the beginning of the end. The Southern provincial elections result also affected the makeup of New Caledonia's Parliament, the Congress, and in turn that of the local government.

A few days later, the Southern province elected a new chairman - Future Together's Philippe Gomes, replacing Lafleur.

On May 15, 71-year-old Lafleur effectively resigned from all his local mandates at both provincial and Congress level.

He now only retains his seat in the French National Assembly, as a representative for New Caledonia.

The following week, the 54-seat Congress, which reflects the proportional representation of each provincial assembly, held the inaugural meeting of its new five-year mandate.

But the proportions were slightly tighter in the Congress: Avenir Ensemble has 16 seats and RPCR the same.

The rest comprise the pro-independence parties, mainly the UNI-FLNKS and the other faction, Union Calédonienne and the anti-independence National Front (four seats).

On May 21, the domino effect continued: it took the support from the National Front and Union Calédonienne to join Future Together and elect Harold Martin - another Future Together key member. Martin, another dissident from RPCR whom Lafleur had once sidelined, was elected chairman of the Congress with 28 votes.

It seems the new political era reflects a strong will for change from voters right across the political spectrum. And this was reflected in the election of the Congress chairman.

Martin's victory, and that of Future Together, was greeted by cheers from a packed gallery.

Nouméa Mayor Jean Lèques, who was chairing the inaugural Congress session as the eldest member, had to call for order, something he usually never had to do.

Asked how they perceived this change, voters told local media they were delighted by the election's results.

Many even added that they had not felt as good in a very long time and that now, for a change, they could express themselves "freely" and "without fear of reprisals".

Others mentioned the fall of the Berlin Wall. In this case, why not Ceaucescu? Why not indeed?

So, in a similar type of "liberation mood", while they were at it, straight after the election, someone even came up with the idea of taking the public - mostly supporters and sympathisers - on a guided tour of the building, once a symbol of RPCR's unchallenged supremacy.

This included an inspection of Lafleur's office, on the fourth floor. Strange atmosphere.

New Caledonia's Congress will now have to elect a new government, reflecting the new makeup of this Parliament.

Tahiti (French Polynesia)
Nothing unusual was expected for the May 23 general election in French Polynesia.

Even critical commentators were saying incumbent President Gaston Flosse's anti-independence party, the Tahoeraa Huiraatira ("Rally for the People"), would get, as usual, a comfortable majority in the new 57-seat parliamentary Assembly.

Flosse had himself triggered this election, when he asked French President Chirac to dissolve the Assembly, days afer France had in March granted a new autonomy status for French Polynesia.

President Jacques Chirac carried out a move - just as he did two years after being elected French Head of State in 1995 - that did not bring the expected result at the time either. The general elections brought a majority of Socialists in the new National Assembly, forcing Chirac to appoint a Socialist Prime minister.

New rules had been set for this election in French Polynesia: Any party getting the most seats in each of the six constituencies was sure to get a "bonus" of thirty percent of seats.

This, Flosse said, was designed to provide for clearer majorities and accentuate the colours of Parliament.

The electoral jigsaw of the constituencies had also been changed.

Flosse, who turns 73 this month, was also confident that, as usual, this new Parliament would take a nice, orange colour - the colour of his party.

Everything was set for yet another victory, only one that would be even larger.

No one really knows what happened. Things turned out to be completely different.

Instead, the new Assembly has turned half blue, the colour of Oscar Temaru's pro-independence Tavini Huiraatira ("Working for the People").

Was there, after all, some sort of "dissolution curse" repeating itself?

Tavini had rallied a three-way coalition for these general elections - the Union for Democracy (UPD) - with two other opposition parties.

But two other partries, the Fetia Api (led by Philippe Schyle) and the No Oe E Te Nunaa (formed last year by Nicole Bouteau, a former Tourism Minister in Flosse's government), chose to contest alone.

Although initial results gave Flosse's Tahoeraa the advantage in the outer islands, when it came to the main Island of Tahiti and neighbouring Moorea, the advantage went to the UPD.

Now Flosse's Tahoeraa only controls 28 seats in the new assembly, one short of a majority.

Temaru's UPD was the major winner of the poll: it can now count on 27 seats.

Two other opposition parties, the No Oe E Te Nunaa and the Fetia Api, with one seat each, now hold the balance of power in Tahiti, which has since March been described as an "overseas country within the French Republic".

What seemed to be inconceivable only a few months ago, both in New Caledonia and French Polynesia, has now happened.

What the incumbent rulers' parties now have to do is seek alliances with other parties to form majorities because they no longer have enough support to rule alone - which they had been doing for the past 25 years.

Worse even, they could lose power. In French Polynesia, this is what will have to happen if any of the parties represented in the new Assembly want to control the chamber and form a government by mid-June.

Flosse reacted to the adverse election results, saying "maybe this means French Polynesians wish for the independence of French Polynesia".

"I think the French President and French Overseas Minister Girardin will decide on what steps to take. But logically, after these elections, a self-determination referendum should be organised," he said.

"They should be asked whether they want to transform this vote for Tavini Huiraatira into a vote for independence. I don't know whether those who have voted for UPD have really realised the consequences of their actions."

But the repercussions of the recent political events go beyond French Polynesia and New Caledonia's local politics.

Optimistic comments from both these French dependencies say this could be the beginning of a new era, especially since due to an ongoing "chill" between Lafleur and Flosse, relations between the two French Pacific island groups had been relatively non-existent for the past 20 years.

Regarding the integration of these French islands into the rest of the Pacific, their "natural environment" - as the Nouméa Accord optimistically terms it - French Polynesia, paradoxically, seems to be more advanced, even if it does not have an Forum observer status as yet.

A Forum fact-finding mission could go there for that purpose sometime in July.

For New Caledonia, in terms of regional relations, things can only get better with a new power in place, if it chooses to make full use of its Forum observer status but also effectively entertains regular contacts with its immediate region, apart from sports.

Even in New Caledonia, Jacques Lafleur commented on the results. But he cautiously avoided drawing any parallels between his recent setback and the election results in French Polynesia.

Instead, he said Flosse had lost because he had had "too much absolute power" and that "some people feared him".

Shockwaves in Paris
Back in metropolitan France, shockwaves from those once-peaceful and idyllic Pacific islands have also been felt in the past few days as a result of the latest political swings.

French Socialist Party secretary general François Hollande, which recently secured a major victory in the French regional elections, one again grabbed the "political earthquake" line.

He said this was a sort of continuation of the French poll in April, when all but one of metropolitan France's regions shifted to the left, dealing a stinging blow to the ruling right-wing UMP party, its national government and eventually French President Jacques Chirac himself.

He also commented this was the third defeat in French overseas dependencies for leaders perceived to be strong allies and in a way offspring of French President Jacques Chirac.

"First there was Lucette Michaud-Chevry in Guadeloupe (French Caribbean), then earlier this month Jacques Lafleur in New Caledonia. And now this is Chirac's overseas network's third pillar that collapses," Hollande said.

The French Socialist Party recently signed an alliance memorandum with Temaru's Tavini, whereby it gave its backing to Temaru's pro-independence movement.

On the French government side, French Minister for Overseas Brigitte Girardin, while saying this was "a sign of good health for democracy", also exerted caution and warned against an apparent "polarisation" in the French Pacific's politics.

Responding to critics from the Socialists during heated debates in the French National Assembly, she also cautioned left-wing Socialists "not to celebrate too fast, because the electoral process is far from over yet".

Whatever happens next, this series of events can be considered as the end of a political era, a "certain idea" of France's influence in this region, when colonies were still the norm.

Lafleur and Flosse, and their respective systems, are in fact very similar. Even the men themselves are some of the last ruling products of this era, simply because they grew up in those days.

In fact, they are about the same age.

But one of the reasons they stayed in power so long is also because there are the pessimists who fear that such strong personalities' shoes will be very hard to fill.

Patrick Decloitre - padec@iname.com is the editor of Oceania Flash, an email news service that aims at promoting regular information and better understanding between the French-speaking (Francophone) Pacific and the English-speaking Pacific.