The Independent: 12 September 2001
FIJI: PROBLEMS AHEAD AFTER CLIFFHANGER ELECTION
Now the Qarase government in Fiji faces a reality check. While his coalition may be more stable than one put together by Labour, it will still face major problems trying to patch up an economy crippled by the political upheaval.
By DAVID ROBIE in Suva
ONE OF the many ironies of the surprise result of last week's Fiji general election was the demise of one of the "godfathers" of the indigenous Taukei movement, Apisai Tora.
The man who was once a firebrand trade unionist and who led the 1959 oil workers' strike, later became a nationalist and helped unleash
the forces that overthrew the first Labour Party coalition government in two coups in 1987.
He was also a key leader of the indigenous protest movement against the Mahendra Chaudhry-led Labour government last year, which
climaxed with George Speight's rebellion on May 19.
Tora was one of the many established Fijian leaders and chiefs who were swept away by younger people and bureaucrats in the new tide
of nationalist fervour. [But he was later appointed a senator].
Party leaders Dr Tupeni Baba, Filipe Bole, Adi Kuini Speed, Ponipate Lesavua and Tevita Momoedonu ‹ all Fijians, representing different political parties ‹ and the
traditional Indian-dominated National Federation Party leader Attar Singh were all defeated.
Four of the Fijian leaders were apparently "punished" for being ministers in Chaudhry's government.
"The Fijians are sick of those who have been carrying Fijian leadership since the departure of Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara," said one
analyst.
"We wanted a change and we were just waiting for an appropriate leader like Laisenia Qarase who speaks our language to turn up."
The expected rise of the multiracial "moderate" parties fizzled as the majority of both the Fijian and Indo-Fijian communities retreated to
bastions of ethno-nationalism, creating the most polarised result in a Fiji election since 1977.
Although the three-month-old Soqosoqo Dauvata ni Lewenivanua (SDL) party of caretaker Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase rode on the
back of the Speight attempted coup to capture 31 seats, it still gained considerably fewer votes than Labour overall. Labour won 35
percent (75 per cent of the Indian vote) for just 27 seats, while the SDL took 25 percent.
However, together with Speight's ultra-nationalist Conservative Alliance Matanitu Vanua party's 10 percent they were evenly matched. Speight
decisively won his rural Tailevu North communal seat from the prison isle of Nukulau, but his two detained running mates were not so
lucky.
Qarase was sworn in as Prime Minister on Monday, finally gaining some legitimacy. But there was still confusion over who his coalition partners would be with the new cabinet due to be sworn in today.
After initially resisting joining SDL, the "moderates" - breakaway New Labour Unity Party, the United General Party and the National Federation Party with four seats between them - finally agreed, giving Qarase the 37 seats needed for a majority in the 71-seat House of Representatives. [In fact, both UGP and the NFP decied against this in the end and the moderates only gained one seat in cabinet. Qarase relied on the ultra-conservatives to get his majority].
But then Chaudhry unexpectedly accepted Qarase's invitation, required under the 1997 Constitution for any party winning eight seats or more, to join the cabinet.
This posed a serious dilemma for the former banker because by giving Labour the required eight seats in a 20-seat cabinet and the moderates four or five seats, Qarase could end up with a minority.
It was not clear yesterday what Qarase would do. He said before Chaudhry accepted the invitation, expecting that Labour would be in opposition: "The numbers don't stack up. It will never work."
Now the Qarase government faces a reality check. While his coalition may be more stable than one put together by
Labour, it will still face major problems trying to patch up an economy crippled by the political upheaval.
The director of the University of the South Pacific's Centre for Development Studies, Professor Vijay Naidu, predicts another brain
drain of skilled and professional people as happened after the 1987 coups, if there is no multi-party government embracing Labour as
well as the SDL.
"The exodus that began since 1987 will actually continue in the next five years under the Qarase regime," he says.
Professor Naidu added that according to recent studies conducted by his centre, the trend was now for ethnic Fijians and part-Europeans
to also migrate, following the Indo-Fijians.
He said there was a gross under-estimate of ethnic Fijian and mixed-race migration by the Immigration Department, claiming their
method of calculating net departures was wrong.
"Official figures would tell you that around 5000 people left over the past year," he said. "Our calculation is that 12,000 people left."
According to former Sun editor Wainikiti Waqa, one of Fiji's most perceptive journalists, Qarase now faces several dilemmas.
"While Qarase can revel in his newfound legitimacy, it won't be too long before he will have to review and decide what sort of prime
minister (assuming he will be PM) he wants to become. A leader for the indigenous ‹ or will it be a leader for all the people of Fiji," she
said.
"For his political survival, he might choose the former but will he do this by sacrificing the others who also call Fiji their home? Only
time can tell. "
If Qarase needs examples, he only needs to look at the fate of the former coup leader Sitiveni Rabuka who mellowed as a nationalist. But
when he championed the multiracial 1997 constitution, he lost.
A Qarase government's policies will depend heavily on affirmative action for Fijians such as outlined in the so-called Blueprint, but
analysts have warned against exploiting this to fulfill election promises and vote-buying as past Fiji governments have done.
"Affirmative action is a double edged sword," said political sociologist Dr Steven Ratuva, of the University of the South Pacific.
"If it is conceptualised and implemented wrongly, it is going to have disastrous unintended consequences for Fiji. If it is focused
systematically and rationally, then it will work."
But the biggest problem, according to Professor Naidu, is the lack of a multi-party government, which would have serious implications
for economic growth, employment generation and social policy.
The best option in his view for the country would be for Chaudhry and Qarase to "bury the hatchet" and heal the wounds of Fiji.
"It would be a profound irony if the Conservative Alliance were to hold the balance of power," he said.
"Do the people of Fiji want to reward those responsible for the atrocities, the bloodshed, the displaced families, the downturn in the
country's economy and the loss of jobs with political leadership?"